The last time John Thune ran for the Senate, he fought a pitched battle in one of the nation's most watched races, and his victory over Tom Daschle made him a darling of the Republican party.
This time around, to say the least, his bid for the Senate lacks the same drama as Democrats struggle to find even token opposition to run against him.
With six weeks to go before the filing deadline for major-party candidates, the race for Thune's seat threatens to be the first in South Dakota history - since senators began being popularly elected in 1914 - in which the November ballot does not feature a Republican and a Democrat.
Alabama Sen. Richard Shelby is the only other Republican incumbent who doesn't yet have Democratic opposition for this year's general election.
Party activists and political observers offer several reasons for Thune's lack of a challenger:
- South Dakota Democrats, whose bench is relatively thin, are focusing on state races, including the governorship and state legislative seats;
- The prospect of facing a popular Republican incumbent in a year when Democrats are not projected to do well nationally is not appealing; and
- Thune's $6 million campaign war chest probably has scared off some serious challengers.
"I think that intimidates a lot of folks. That's a lot of money," J.B. Poersch, executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said Wednesday in Washington.
It's a stark difference from 2004, when Thune - who had suffered a whisker-thin loss to Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson in 2002 - narrowly ousted Daschle, then the Democratic Senate leader and a national political figure. Millions of dollars were spent by the candidates and outside groups in a bruising contest that drew the national spotlight.
Erin McCarrick, executive director of the South Dakota Democratic Party, said that this year her organization has been focused on state races, but she and other party activists have had "conversational" discussions with potential Senate candidates. Nobody has yet stepped forward, she said.
If Thune would go unopposed, the Republican party would reap a sort of bonus. He is popular among GOP faithful, to the point that he has been mentioned as a possible presidential candidate in 2012, and without an opponent to hold his attention, he would be free to roam the country raising money and campaigning for colleagues.
The Democrats have until the end of March to find a candidate and submit the 1,200 registered Democratic voters' signatures needed to place his or her name on the ballot. Independent candidates have until June to file for the ballot, Secretary of State Chris Nelson said.
Even if a challenger doesn't come forward, McCarrick said, Democrats would find some way to make sure Thune would be held accountable and not get a "free pass."
Two prominent names had surfaced in recent months involving a potential challenge. But Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and Matt McGovern, state chairman of the clean-energy group Repower America and the grandson of former South Dakota Democratic Sen. George McGovern, said they were not interested.
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It's not easy taking on an incumbent, especially one with the fundraising advantage Thune enjoys, said Brent Lerseth, a political science professor at Augustana College in Sioux Falls.
"It would be a very tough race for someone unless they have name recognition within the state," he said. "The real potential challengers aren't ready to run against him or have chosen to go other avenues."
Lerseth said he thinks someone will step in and run, just not someone who's likely to pose much of a challenge to Thune.
That's fine with Rob Jesmer, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Poersch's GOP counterpart.
"The best thing Senator Thune can do for us is to continue to represent South Dakota the best way he knows how and make sure we don't have a real race," Jesmer said. "That will be tremendously helpful to us."
