On a conference call with bloggers this morning, Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) was asked a number of questions about the health care debate and the chances of the Democrats getting a public option in the final bill. Sen. Thune said that after the beatings the Democrats took in the townhall meetings over the August recess, he believed that the public option was dead. Now, he says, the Democrats have renewed the push for it, though they are not calling it the public option this time, and that unless they are stopped, there will likely be a government-run health care vehicle in the final Senate bill. He added the caveat that there were a fair amount of procedural hurdles that had to be cleared before a final vote. The full audio of the call, which runs about 32 minutes is here.Sen. Thune highlighted the difficulty the Democrats may have in convincing enough of their own members to vote for a huge, expensive new entitlement on top of tax increases and Medicare cuts. He laid out how he thought the Dems would try to push it through the Senate.
1. First, they will merge the Finance and HELP Committee bills and include a clear public option. They will then try to get the bill through in regular order, meaning with a normal cloture vote requiring 60 votes. This is obviously subject to a filibuster by the Republicans if they can peel off a Democrat. Including the public option up front appeases the liberal base. If it goes down, the Democrats can say they tried, but that there weren’t enough votes. The moonbat attacks on the Dems who vote against cloture on that one ought to be interesting.
2. Failing to get the public option through in regular order, the Democrats will likely drop the public option and try some version of the Baucus bill from Finance, which contains massive new taxes, including the “Cadillac plan” tax to which unions are violently opposed, along with $500 billion in Medicare cuts. Sen. Thune thought the Democrats might have a tough time selling this to their moderate members, especially those Senators who may be up for reelection next year or those from generally conservative states.
3. If the Baucus bill is killed in regular order (can’t get 60 votes for cloture), then things get sticky. Reid will likely send the Baucus bill back to the Finance Committee and report the bill out under reconciliation, which would only require 51 votes. Paraphrasing Sen. Thune, the Republicans would raise holy hell over this move and would raise objections, points of order, and other parliamentary maneuvers to block it. It takes 60 votes to waive a point of order.
4. If the bill can be sliced and diced to the point it cannot pass intact, Reid will likely divide the bill into two separate bills, one with the budgetary items, like the tax increases and the Medicare cuts, the other with the policy changes, like co-ops, new agencies, etc. The budget bill can easily be passed with 51 votes under the Byrd rule on reconciliation (provided they can get 51 votes for a pretty unattractive bill). The other would still require 60 votes on cloture.
Sen. Thune thought that a Senate bill would hit the floor either next week or the week after. ...
